Why here? Why now?

President Bush’s decision to visit Friday’s naturalization ceremony at Monticello was an unusual move for a president who has tended to favor venues with friendly audiences.

“Bush is so unpopular in so many places these days that it’s tough for him to find anywhere outside military academies, military installations or religious schools where he can appear happily,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Since his approval ratings began to plummet, Bush has rarely opted to visit college towns such as Charlottesville.

“This is a little more daring,” Sabato said. “In this area, he is probably 80 percent unpopular.”

During the 2004 election, Bush lost in Albemarle County by 899 votes. He lost in Charlottesville by 6,916 votes.

In this case, some 1,000 members of the general public will attend Bush’s visit. The president can expect both supporters and opponents in the crowd.

Monticello issues invites to all sitting presidents to attend its annual Indepen-dence Day event, during which 75 people become American citizens. Bush is the first president to take Monticello up on its offer since Gerald Ford in 1976.

By attending Monticello’s red-white-and-blue ceremony, Bush may be thinking about his legacy and attempting to dissociate himself with the partisanship that many believe has marked his presidency, said Brian Balogh, a UVa history professor and co-chairman of the Miller Center of Public Affairs’ Governing America in a Global Era program.

“It gives him an opportunity to appear presidential, to appear above the fray, to appear nonpartisan,” Balogh said.

While presidents have argued about citizenship going back to the days of the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798, most American presidents have viewed naturalization as unifying and transcending politics, Balogh said.

“This is a chance for a president to send a message of unity,” Balogh said. “Whether or not President Bush takes advantage of that, we’ll have to see. I hope he does.”

With Virginia widely seen as a possible swing state, might Bush’s visit have an impact on this fall’s presidential contest between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama?

“I don’t know if anyone will remember this in November, but if they do, you could make the case that Bush’s appearance is a minus for McCain,” Sabato said. “Bush’s approval ratings are in the low 30s in Virginia.”

Christian Schoenwald, chairman of the Albemarle County Republican Commit-tee, said he believes that Bush has no political motives in taking the Thomas Jefferson Foundation up on its offer to attend Friday’s naturalization ceremony.

“In some ways, what we have here is the presidency — not the president — attending a function,” Schoenwald said. “This isn’t George Bush campaigning for someone. I think he’s saying, ‘I’ve only got six more months in office. I’ll never get another opportunity to do something like this. It’d probably be pretty cool.’”

Fred Hudson, chairman of the Albemarle County Democratic Committee, suspects that Bush’s visit could have negative political consequences for the GOP.

“I agree with Dr. Sabato,” he said. “It’s going to be a net minus for McCain.”

Hudson added that he will “absolutely not” be attending this year’s ceremony at Monticello.