Primarily, votes cast by a few

Who cares about party nominating primaries anymore-

Forty to 50 years ago, a June Democratic Party primary meant a great deal to a lot of people because whomever the Democrats nominated in June was pretty likely to win in November.

Some people said, and in many cases it was true, that the election that mattered was the June Democratic primary.

A lot has changed in Virginia since the late 1960s, when Democrats morphed into so many warring camps that, in 1970, Republicans moved into the Governor's Mansion for the first time in a mighty long time.

Since 1969, Democratic primaries have been less predictive of November results and Republican primaries have become the places where battles over the heart and soul of a political party have been increasingly hard fought.

So who votes in party primaries these days-

The most active of the activists, the nuttiest of the "wingnuts" -- those way over on the right wing of the GOP or the left wing of the Democratic Party, the most consistent voters of whatever party is picking nominees and, in short, not a whole lot of ordinary Virginians who don't pay particular attention to partisan hues of reds or blues.

Voter turnout in many June primaries in recent years fluctuates between 1 percent and 5 or 6 percent, leaving more than 90 percent of registered voters on the sidelines either paying little attention or simply waiting for the Republican vs. Democrat general elections in November.

Two rules apply in modern Virginia June primary contests.

One rule is that those who vote wield 30 to 40 times the voting clout of regular November voters. In smaller turnout elections, those who pay attention and vote for a candidate in a primary have that much more influence on who wins than in a November general election.

The other rule is that money matters somewhat but the candidate with the most money in a nomination fight cannot count on a primary victory.

If big money guaranteed success, incumbents would lose even fewer nomination battles than they do, which is few enough.

The June 12 primary in the 24th Virginia Senate District may be a good example of the two rules at play to the disadvantage of a Republican incumbent.

Sen. Emmett W. Hanger Jr., R-Mount Solon, has raised more money than GOP challenger Scott Sayre, but campaign cash hardly tells the full story in a race in which many party activists have abandoned Hanger.

Sayre pulled in a $50,000 check from Harrisonburg businessman Walter Curt near the end of May, pushing the challenger's total raised to $152,707. Hanger stayed ahead of Sayre by increasing his campaign war chest to $232,321.

However, Hanger's money advantage is no guarantee of more votes in a June 12 primary in which passion, not ads, greatly influences voter turnout.

One who cares a great deal is Curt, who ran Shenandoah Electronic Intelligence, a Harrisonburg-based company that provided data and records management services to the Department of Homeland Security, until he sold it in 2005 for $75 million to SI International.

Curt has deep pockets for Republicans of the deeply conservative stripe and has given well more than $600,000 to GOP candidates and committees, including former Del. Richard Black, R-Loudoun County, and former Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore.

Albemarle activists such as county Republican Chairman Keith Drake and Christian Schoenewald, party vice chairman, are working hard for Sayre while more Republicans who have held elected state or federal office have endorsed Hanger.

Hanger's endorsements include warm words from former U.S. Sen. George Allen; Reps. Virgil H. Goode Jr., R-Rocky Mount, and Robert W. Goodlatte, R-Roanoke; House of Delegates Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford; Del. R. Steven Landes, R-Weyers Cave; and Del. Terry G. Kilgore, R-Gate City.

Warm words from fellow Republicans who won elections often count less in small-turnout primaries than door-to-door passion demonstrated by Drake and most of the other Republican committee chairmen in Hanger's 24th Senate District, who have endorsed Sayre.

GOP chairs in Waynesboro, Augusta, Staunton and Greene all back Sayre, who has signed a pledge not to raise taxes while Hanger has not.

Both Hanger and Sayre call themselves conservatives, which is par for the course in GOP primaries south of the Rappahannock River, according to Del. David B. Albo, R-Springfield.

"If you go down south, the person who is the most conservative will generally win the primary," Albo said. "Everybody has on their brochure that they are the conservative candidate. Only the most dedicated are coming [out to vote] and conservatives are very dedicated. They are very dedicated to what they believe and they will show up at the polls.

"So these races in primaries are won by those people who can get conservatives to the polls, or the person who has most friends," Albo said.

So who cares who wins a small-turnout GOP primary- Primarily active, grass-roots conservatives care.