Ogletree makes a puzzling decision

For the last five years or so, Virginia coach Al Groh has made it an annual practice of sitting down with some of his players in December to help them evaluate their pro football possibilities.

Groh fills out the paperwork, sends it off to the NFL and awaits the assessment. While it’s a formality, Groh usually has just as good a handle on the individual’s chances because he used to evaluate talent for the New York Giants, New York Jets and New England Patriots.

Still, he wants his players to get every bit of information possible before making a move, usually on whether to jump before their senior year.

Wide receiver Kevin Ogletree made that jump on Wednesday even though Groh didn’t think it was a good idea.

More seasoning needed?

Ogletree has been a solid receiver for the Cavaliers. He has already graduated, but has another year of eligibility. Instead of sticking around and perhaps thriving in UVa’s new spread offense next season, he opted to ignore the information presented to him and contacted an agent.

Groh supported the move and likes Ogletree, but cringed when asked about the decision.

“If you can go in the first round, it’s a good thing to do,” Groh said.

That’s likely not the case here.

It appears that Ogletree’s jump isn’t a wise decision. When the NFL returns paperwork on players, the results come back with three answers and Ogletree’s was returned with this message:

“Does not have potential to be drafted in the first three rounds.”

Some NFL player personnel evaluators we are familiar with rated Ogletree as a possible fifth-rounder. In a league where wide receivers are a dime a dozen, this decision appears to be a mistake.

“Some guys just got to find out,” Groh said.

Kai’s cautionary tale

That’s what happened with former UVa linebacker Kai Parham a few years ago. Those same talent evaluators rated him a sixth- or seventh-round pick, and he wasn’t drafted at all and never made it as a free agent.

Other guys like D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Chris Long could have jumped early but benefited greatly from an extra year. They listened to Groh and made a lot of extra money by doing so. On the other hand, Groh told Heath Miller that he’d be crazy not to go early, and that worked out rather well as the big tight end was the Steelers’ first-round pick.

As a junior, Ferguson was rated as a first-rounder, but probably around the 20th pick of the draft. Groh explained to the offensive left tackle to consider the physical stature of the players he would be going up against and the expectations of a starting left tackle, the guy who is supposed to protect the quarterback. He also explained the benefits of another year to prepare.

Ferguson listened and had a standout senior season and went from the projected 20th draft position to No. 4, which amounted to about another $20 million on his contract, money that can’t be made up.

Long listened to the same information, and while his decision wasn’t based on money, it ended up making him a lot more as the overall No. 2 choice in the draft (and there was speculation he would go No. 1). He used the extra year to make himself the best defensive end in the college game.

Ogletree might not have moved up to a first-rounder, but another year might have advanced him into the first three rounds, especially learning from new offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon.

Pro football talent evaluators weren’t impressed with the Virginia receiver’s ability to beat press coverage and some of the little things like taking out the strong safety on a downfield play — the kinds of things that make or break wide receivers trying to win a roster spot.

Meanwhile, Groh isn’t hitting the panic button. He believes sophomore Jared Green, redshirt freshman Javaris Brown (both are speed merchants) and a flock of incoming receivers will flourish in the new offensive system and allow the Cavaliers to do things they couldn’t do before — even with Ogletree.