Drought in region? Not quite

The last significant rain in the area came on a day when no one wanted it — July 4, when 2 inches fell in the area.

The rain total since wouldn’t fill a shot glass. This month, only 0.06 inches of rain have fallen in the area, according to the National Weather Service.

“That’s pretty bad,” said Richard Hitchens, a hydrologist forecaster with the National Weather Service.

Three months since the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority lifted a drought watch for the area, are we on the verge of another one?

Not quite, according to RWSA Executive Director Thomas L. Frederick Jr.

Recent computer risk assessments “indicate we had not yet reached a level of instituting a drought warning,” Frederick said.

On Aug. 1, the assessment, which predicts 12 weeks out, showed a 7 percent chance for a drought. Another assessment on Aug. 15 showed a 10 percent chance.

The RWSA will run another assessment on Monday. The computer risk assessment takes into account levels at the area’s reservoirs, stream flows and 82 years of historical stream flow data.

All that said, the area is extremely dry, according to Frederick. Stream flows and ground water are both in bad shape.

“The stream flows are at the lowest since 2002,” when a statewide drought hit, Frederick said. That year was the last time mandatory water restrictions were implemented in the area.

The RWSA instituted a drought watch locally in July 2007 and lifted it in May. Good amounts of rainfall followed in June and early July, Frederick said.

The lack of rain lately has had more impact on other Virginia areas.

Last week, Richmond and the counties of Henrico and Hanover instituted mandatory water restrictions.

Also, Chesterfield County remains under voluntary water-conservation measures. Several other Richmond-area counties are asking residents to conserve water.

Frederick said Charlottesville-area residents also should pay mind to how they use water. For example, if you plan to water plants and the like, do so in the morning when less water evaporates.

Frederick doesn’t foresee another drought watch.

One reason for that is the approach of fall and winter, which the risk assessment accounted for.

Fall and winter are the typical times when stream and ground water recover from dry spells, he said.

But forecasting rainfall is a nebulous undertaking.

“We are not taking our eye off the ball,” Frederick said. “The long-term outlook for Central Virginia is mixed. It’s almost like flipping a coin.”

Hitchens checked the forecast for the area and said, “There’s no significant tilt one way or the other.”

The forecasts for September through November call for the Northeast and Southeast to be “wetter than normal,” he said. But it remains unclear what is in store for Central Virginia.

“Which is good in that there’s no indication it’ll be overly dry,” Hitchens said.

The past three years, including so far in 2008, have been “below normal rainfall” for the area, Frederick said.

He would like to see that change.

“We all here are hoping for a wet winter.”