Is this the bottom?

A new report on real estate sales in the Charlottesville region says the market could be described as “hot” — but only if compared to the Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve, where temperatures tend to be in the mid-40s.

“Just about everything in life is relative to your perspective,” Dave Phillips, CEO of the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors, wrote in his mid-year market report. “Based on that theory, you could say the real estate market in the Charlottesville area is as hot as ANWR.”

The tortoise-like pace of the region’s real estate market continued through the second quarter of 2008, but signs of increased activity may be emerging.

“The real estate market in the Charlottesville area continues to chug along at a moderate pace,” Phillips said in the report released Friday. “If you look at it relative to the hot markets in recent years, you might say ‘sluggish’ is a better word.”

Between January and June, 1,177 homes were sold in Charlottesville and the counties of Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson — a 28 percent decline from the first half of last year. It marked the lowest mid-year sales figures for the market since 2001.

Phillips said the figures indicate the market has found its equilibrium. The median price of homes sold during the past three years has remained relatively unchanged. The current median home price in the area is $268,159, a 2.1 percent drop from the first half of 2007.

“It looks like we have stabilized,” said Pat Sury, managing broker with Montague Miller & Co. Realtors. “I think it’s a great time to buy if you’re a first-time homebuyer or if you don’t have to sell something first.”

Phillips’ report contained a bit of positive news for the real estate industry. The number of homes for sale declined a bit. However,  most real estate agents agree that there are still far too many homes on the market. Currently, there are 2,634 homes for sale, down from 2,846 at the end of May.

“There’s definite signs that it’s getting ready to turn or it’s already turned, but we won’t know it for six months or so,” Phillips said.

The average home for sale in the market is taking 126 days to sell. Ideally, Phillips wrote, a house should take an average of 90 days to sell.

Condominium and townhouse sales in Albemarle plummeted from the mid-point of 2007. Last year, 308 such units had sold. This year, only 144 have sold.

Charlottesville also saw fewer condo and townhouse sales during the first half of 2008, declining from 121 last year to 102.

With the region’s median sales price stabilizing and inventory beginning to shrink, real estate agents are starting to suggest that the market has reached its nadir.

“I think we’ve hit bottom,” said Judy Savage, president of CAAR and a real estate agent with RE/MAX. “If people were sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to bottom out, now is the time to get in the market. We’ve seen the worst of it. Things should get better now. At least, I hope so.”

Many real estate agents may not manage to weather the moribund market before it solidly rebounds, Savage said. A full 15 percent of the Charlottesville area’s 1,110 real estate agents are expected to drop out of the business by January.

“We’re seeing a lot of good Realtors leave the business,” she said, citing the example of two agents in their mid-30s who are quitting soon.

“It’s been a tough time for sellers and it’s been a tough time for Realtors,” Savage said.

On the other hand, it’s been a fairly good environment for buyers, as sellers are willing to drop prices, throw in incentives and agree to any of a number of concessions.

Savage said balance between buyers and sellers may soon be restored to the market. There is currently an eighth-month supply of homes for sale today, down from around 15 months not long ago. A market is considered balanced when it has roughly six months worth of inventory, she said.