Perriello becomes a bellwether
U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Ivy
What do the huge gains for GOP candidates seen on Election Day foreshadow for the 2010 re-election chances of U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Ivy?
Depends who you ask.
Perriello — who unseated Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr., R-Rocky Mount, by a scant 727 votes in 2008 — is widely anticipated to be atop the national Republican Party’s list of targets in next year’s mid-term congressional races.
Republicans note that GOP gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell carried Perriello’s district with an overwhelming 61.4 percent. Two of the district’s GOP incumbents for the House of Delegates — Rob Bell of Albemarle County and Danny Marshall of Danville — crushed their opponents on Nov. 3, though their challengers spent well more than $100,000.
“I think it’s clear that [last] Tuesday’s results bode very poorly for Tom Perriello’s ability to hold on to his seat,” said Andy Seré, a regional press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “It was nothing less than a rebuke of the big government agenda coming out of Washington. Tom Perriello is pretty much in lockstep with that agenda.”
Democrats, meanwhile, say that constituents of the 5th District — which stretches from the Charlottesville area down to Danville — are impressed with Perriello’s hard-working approach on issues such as the economy, health care and clean energy.
“No member of Congress works harder or is more in touch with their district than Tom Perriello,” said Jesse Ferguson, southern regional press secretary of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “He is standing up for veterans and fighting hard for middle class families.”
The divide over Perriello’s performance could be seen outside his office Tuesday, with some rallying to protest Perriello’s vote for the Affordable Health Care for America Act and others turning out to thank him.
Democrats say that the crowded field of Republicans vying to win their party’s nomination to challenge Perriello may be shaping up to resemble last week’s special election in the 23rd District of New York, in which the Republican nominee was viewed as too moderate and a more conservative third party candidate arose. On Election Day, the Democrat won in the traditionally Republican stronghold.
7 opponents already
So far, six GOP candidates have announced their intention to seek their party’s nomination to go up against Perriello.
Yet a seventh candidate — Bradley S. Rees of Bedford County — has dropped out of the Republican primary and launched a third party bid on the Virginia Conservative Party ticket. Rees made his decision out of disappointment with the likely frontrunners in the GOP primary race.
“It may amount to only drawing enough votes from the Republican candidate to ensure Tom Perriello a second term,” Rees said as he made his announcement on Oct. 29. “If so, so be it. Maybe then, the party will understand that we are trying to save the GOP from its worst enemy: not the Democrats, but themselves.”
Fred Hudson, chairman of the 5th District Democratic Committee, said the GOP’s inner-party divisions can only help Perriello next year.
“The more divisions they have and the more people they have in their primary race, the better it’ll be for Tom Perriello,” Hudson said.
The national Republican Party has gotten behind the primary candidacy of state Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham, pointing out that he has a proven ability to win elections that cover large portions of the district’s southern half.
Among the 5th District’s conservative rank-and-file, however, Hurt is not necessarily the favored candidate.
Early GOP endorsement
Bill Hay, chairman of the Jefferson Area Tea Party, announced Friday that he is endorsing Albemarle County real estate investor Laurence Verga in the GOP primary. Hay, a Greene County resident, said grassroots conservatives in the district dislike certain aspects of Hurt’s record, most notably his 2004 vote in favor of then-Gov. Mark R. Warner’s $1.4 billion package to increase the sales tax and lower certain other taxes.
Hay said he is “disturbed” that the national GOP, as opposed to local conservative activists, seems to be trying to choose the 5th District nominee.
“If they don’t give the people the chance to make their own decision, they’re not going to get the support of the people in the fall,” Hay said. “And Perriello will end up winning.”
The Hill, a newspaper that covers Congress, has listed Hurt’s vote in favor of the 2004 tax package as the GOP’s No. 7 conservative conundrum of 2010.
Hurt did not return a call for comment. Seré defended Hurt, saying he is a solid conservative who has a pro-business record of supporting lower taxes.
“It’s clear that throughout Sen. Hurt’s near decade of public service, he’s compiled a strong conservative record,” Seré said. “That’s the kind of record a candidate needs to beat Tom Perriello.”
Perriello also did not return a call for comment. He was not at his office Tuesday.
Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said there are a number of factors that will determine Perriello’s re-election chances next year but the economy is by far the biggest.
How will state swing?
“Virginia is correctly viewed as one of the largest, most important swing states — a competitive ‘purple’ state that will go back and forth between the parties depending on the circumstances and candidates,” Sabato said. “Just like 2009 was poles apart from 2008, so too can 2010 be dissimilar from 2009. Everything will depend on the state of the economy next November, President Obama’s level of popularity, the identity of the Republican opponent to Tom Perriello, and possibly some ‘X’ factors like Afghanistan and health care reform.”
It is too soon to tell, Sabato said, if divisions among conservative activists will play a role. It also remains to be seen, he said, if Perriello will be able to motivate Obama’s supporters, which it appears Democratic gubernatorial nominee Sen. R. Creigh Deeds failed to do.
“Midterm elections almost always result in the out-of-power party picking up House seats, maybe a substantial number. Perriello has been on the GOP’s target list from the day he won his ’08 squeaker,” Sabato said. “The 5th District overall is still Republican territory. Perriello won’t be getting a day’s rest for the next year because he has a tough task in front of him.
“But let’s remember he has all the powers of incumbency, a large staff, an ample treasury and a united party. Republicans are the ones who have to figure out how to pick a strong nominee and not split asunder in the process. Also, the two party candidates will have to generate their own turnout since there is no statewide contest on the Virginia ballot in 2010.”
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Reader Reactions
To the author, “in the 23rd District of New York, in which the Republican nominee was viewed as too moderate.“ When will the media learn? You commonly refer to some Democrats as conservative but rarely refer to Republicans as liberals. Dede Scozzafava favors gay marriage, card-check for union sign-up, abortion choice, etc. These are LIBERAL positions. There’s nothing moderate about them. Give me a break.
antiboyd, just where are you? Does any of this appeal to you?
Perriello Praises Huge Victory on Unemployment Benefits Extension
11/05/09
Today, Rep. Tom Perriello praised the huge victory in Congress to extend unemployment benefits in all 50 states. He had been fighting for the changes since the U.S. House passed a bill in September that did not help Virginians.
Or how about this
Perriello Introduces Bill to Bring High-Tech Jobs to Rural and Small Town America
10/28/09
Congressman Tom Perriello has introduced a bill, H.R. 3627, the Rural and Small Town Telework Tax Credit Act of 2009, to help spur growth of technology jobs in rural areas and small towns. The bill would provide a tax credit for the cost of teleworking equipment and expenses for businesses that hire employees in rural and small town America.
Does this meet your approval
Webb, Warner, and Perriello Laud Passage of D-Day Memorial Study
10/08/09
U.S. Senators Jim Webb and Mark Warner and Congressman Tom Perriello (VA-05) today lauded passage of legislation that would authorize the Department of the Interior to study whether the National D-Day Memorial in Bedford, VA could be transferred to the National Park Service. The legislation was written in consultation with the Memorial, which recently reported that it does not have enough money to sustain operations.
Maybe this
Perriello Announces Over $1.4 Million in Recovery Act Funds for Fluvanna County Fire Department
09/24/09
Today, Rep. Tom Perriello announced that $1,415,540 will be awarded to the Fork Union Company of the Fluvanna County Volunteer Fire Department for construction of a new fire station with state-of-the-art equipment. Construction of the new fire station is expected to keep 100 people employed in the community and benefit numerous businesses supplying materials.
Since you mentioned Education, does this meet your approval?
U.S. House Passes Perriello Amendment to Address Early Childhood Education in Rural Areas
09/17/09
Today, the U.S. House passed an amendment offered by Rep. Tom Perriello to the Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act that seeks to address geographic disparities in early childhood education.
Since you write about fiscal responsibility, how about this?
Perriello Supports Restoring Rules for Fiscal Responsibility
07/22/09
Congressman Tom Perriello voted in favor of pay-as-you-go legislation that requires all legislation to be budget-neutral, and to offset new spending by reducing expenses in other areas.
There are 43 other such bills by Perriello. The amount in his first year exclipises Virgil in his entire time in congress. Surely you would have to agree with this vote, since you have spoken so loudly against it.
In Break from Party, Perriello Opposes Release of Bailout Funds
01/22/09
Breaking from Democratic leadership, Congressman Tom Perriello today voted against releasing the second $350 billion of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that was approved by Congress last fall. In addition, he sent a letter to President Obama reiterating his opposition to the fall bailout and requesting that the President approve new accountability measures for the TARP funds.
Perriello is definitely vulnerable come election time, and he knows it. The question is, how will he use his time between now and then? Representing the 5th district in Congress and working for the betterment of its citizens, or will Tom spend all his time campaigning? My guess is that he will be campaigning. Voters who want to make their decision based on his record can go ahead and choose now. He won’t be doing anything substantial from here on out, just voting the party line. That is, IMHO, just one small step above voting “present”.
Anti, stop thinking so negatively. Your wishes just might come true. Positive thinking…thats the key!!
Guys, common. If you want to see what a world looks like that has been in control by the likes of your democrat hero’s, look at France. If you are twenty your chance of getting a job is about 40% positive. If you do get a job, you are giving up over 60% of your paycheck in part to support all your buddies who cant get a job. This is a world run by social progressives.
Periello’s run away from moderation and some semblence of intelligent independence will make getting re-elected difficult, but hardly impossible. But, dear folks on the radically far left, agenda bound and bereft of self-criticism, you are kidding yourselves if you think Tom’s record to date appeals in any way, even remotely, to the independent voter. He ran to the middle of his political base, and has chosen to do his darndest to pretend to be moderate, but at the end of the day, actions count. Today’s editorial in the Daily Progress lays this out better than I.
The lesson to Republicans is this: How do you select a candidate that can stay on message, accentuate the positive, appeal to broadly held conservative values (and there are plenty) without going to some weak-kneed chameleon (aka Ken Boyd) and not get trapped in the imbecellic rhetoric of stupid issues that only the right wing nuts give a flip about?
Focus merely needs to be on one issue, front and center—the economy.
By next summer we will absolutely be mired in the collapse of the dollar, devastating unemployment, and dwindling goodwill towards mankind.
Virginians have not had to contend with blue state unemployment rates, and they will not be happy. We’ll be facing yet another year of gargantuan deficits—both state and federal—massive cuts of the most basic needs like education, juxtaposed with massive, extravagant federal outflows mis-labeled as “stimulus”, which will
choke off whatever small chance we have for economic recovery.
Yep, thank God that the Republicans are not in power to do nothing for the common man. Too bad that nothing is better than something. Really, is having a bunch of dumb donkeys “doing it to” the common man feel so much better? I gotta tell ‘ya, I’m feelin’ a little raw.
People need jobs. People need an opportunity to make good choices. People need a decent education. People need something to look forward to. This is not rocket science.
Both parties, frankly, are way off target. The contrived drama that passes for governance, and the innane rhetoric that has replaced civil discourse… boring… reprehensible.
The folks in the middle are tired of being squeezed, and fed up with being marginalized and mocked.
We have two priveledged classes in America today:
Those who contribute nothing, don’t pay taxes, don’t take personal responsibility, and look to extend the status quo of entitlement—and that is not the poor people I know, honestly, because those I know work hard and would give their right arm for a chance to lift themselves up—its largely those who can’t be weaned from the government and union and yes corporate largess “due” them.
The other is a rapidly shrinking group of Americans who have reached that rarified air of financial independence, of not having to make the better of two bad choices. If Congress and the President government continue to bankrupt the future and toss the remnants of a republican (small r) democracy away, these folks have a Plan B. They can, and will, walk away. Witness the depopulation of NYC as we speak.
My guess—based on past perfomance—is that the local Republicans will give us a really bad choice to work with—I hope not. If anything, that is what Periello “groupies” might hope for.
That, and a really short-term memory.
Thank you flameworker.
Seems every time a poster hits the nail on the head, they attack the messanger and try to say they are off subject.
I have to agree with you. The Republicans have never done anything for the common man. Every bill they have ever passed puts money in their pockets or their buddies pockets. Then they try to hide by attacking the messenger or bringing out their spin machine.
There’s no need for childish insults, tomcross.
I think you are confused, as the article was not specifically about the health care bill, but rather, about Perriello’s chance of re-election in general. I think if you look at Perriello’s voting record, he has definitely taken a conservative stance on some issues.
I was merely reminding readers how Cantor votes consistently against the interests of the middle class.
Oh, and “flameworker” refers to my work with glass, not the nature of my posts.
Flameworker (or should we call you Flamer?) -
You are obviously confused; this is a story about Perriello and the “healthcare bill”, yet nothing you have to contribute is related to that story.
Put down the bong, and step away from the keyboard…
“As for the Republicans—how can one regard seriously a frightened, greedy, nostalgic huddle of tradesmen and lucky idlers who shut their eyes to history and science, steel their emotions against decent human sympathy, cling to sordid and provincial ideals exalting sheer acquisitiveness and condoning artificial hardship for the non-materially-shrewd, dwell smugly and sentimentally in a distorted dream-cosmos of outmoded phrases and principles and attitudes based on the bygone agricultural-handicraft world, and revel in (consciously or unconsciously) mendacious assumptions (such as the notion that real liberty is synonymous with the single detail of unrestricted economic license or that a rational planning of resource-distribution would contravene some vague and mystical ‘American heritage’…) utterly contrary to fact and without the slightest foundation in human experience? Intellectually, the Republican idea deserves the tolerance and respect one gives to the dead.”
-HP Lovecraft
That just about sums it up for me. When was the last time Republicans did anything for the common man?
Every Sunday, my husband and I play a game. I read the bills listed in the “how they voted” section and try to guess how Eric Cantor voted.
Tired of getting gouged by credit cards that can charge you any interest at any time under any conditions? Eric Cantor wants to protect those companies.
How would you feel if your wife or daughter worked for a company paid with your taxes that included a contract clause that says if you are raped by your co-workers and and then locked in a crate for hours, you can’t take the company to court? Where was Mr. Cantor’s conscience when he voted to protect Haliburton rather than victims of rape? Conservative Christian values at work.
Mr. Cantor cares more about the flag than if you are turned down for a job because you are gay.
He voted AGAINST paid parental leave for federal employees.
He voted NO on letting shareholders vote on executive compensation. Just what we need. More rich guys buying $15,000 umbrella stands while Eric Cantor derides unions that protect America’s workers.
How’s that working for you?
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