Report explores county population questions

A new report — which some have said should not have been funded at all by taxpayer money — warns of the dangers of unchecked population growth in Charlottesville and Albemarle County.

The report, commissioned by Advocates for a Sustainable Albemarle Population, states that potential dangers of rampant growth include increased air and water pollution and an overall deterioration of the area’s ecosystems.

“The ultimate goal [was] to try to see if there were population levels where ecosystem services kind of get wiped out to a certain extent,” said Claire A. Jantz, an assistant professor at Shippensburg University in Pennsylvania, the chief author of the report.

The study was conducted as part of ASAP’s Optimum Sustainable Population Size Project, which is being funded by a $25,000 grant from Albemarle, $11,000 from Charlottesville, $50,000 from the Colcom Foundation and tens of thousands of dollars from other private donors.

Neil Williamson, executive director of the Free Enterprise Forum, said his local business advocacy and government watchdog organization finds some information in the report useful but thinks it was inappropriate for the study to have been funded partially by taxpayers’ money. The funds should have come only from private donors, Williamson said.

David L. Slutzky, chairman of the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors, said local governments provided funding because officials wanted a detailed study that could be used to help guide policy decisions.

“If people question why we funded this … as policymakers, we want to be making policy judgments based on good information,” Slutzky said.

The magic number

The study concludes that if the total population for the Charlottesville-Albemarle area increases to about 217,000 people — it’s currently less than 140,000 — the quality of ecosystems in the developing areas would start to tumble. Though the most rural areas of Albemarle would be slower to feel the pinch — compared with Charlottesville, Crozet, Rivanna and areas along the U.S. 29 corridor — degradation would become more widespread as population continues to increase, ultimately impacting rural areas as well.

The report assumes that growth would largely occur in urban areas of the community until no more land is available for development and then population increases would spill into rural areas, especially after the area’s population exceeds 280,000.

An increase of stormwater runoff into local bodies of water, increased air pollution and a build-up of nitrogen in water are among the potential negative effects of population increasing beyond what the area can support.

The study relies on population modeling to determine where people are most likely to settle, as well as software called CITYgreen, which assists in compiling reports analyzing ecosystems.

Funding contention

Williamson said he thinks the study doesn’t adequately account for the positive effects of population growth nor fairly account for the community’s ability to use technological advances to reduce negative ecosystem impacts. However, his primary contention is the report’s funding sources, citing local government grants and the Colcom Foundation among key donors.

The Colcom Foundation has given millions of dollars to anti-immigration organizations, including two listed as hate groups, according to a July article by The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Jack Marshall, president of ASAP, said that the organization knew about the foundation’s past associations but accepted the money after having asked the question: “‘Are we going to use the money for a good cause?’ And the answer was ‘yes.’”

ASAP was founded in 2002 by a group of local citizens concerned about the effects of growth and development on the Charlottesville-Albemarle community and surrounding areas, according to its Web site. The group, which includes multiple members of Citizens for a Sustainable Water Plan, has earned a reputation from some in the community as being anti-growth.

“Their goal is not to improve the ecosystem. Their goal is stop growth,” Williamson said.

Goverment, group clash

Some government officials have even contended that members of Citizens for a Sustainable Water Plan are demanding that the area’s approved water supply plan by replaced with a dredging alternative — which officials say would produce far less water — because the group members want to restrict growth.

Members of the group, however, have insisted they support dredging the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir — instead of a plan that includes building a new dam at Ragged Mountain — because it would be a cheaper, more environmentally friendly option, not because they want to restrict population growth.

Marshall said ASAP recognizes that it’s good to have a certain level of growth.

“We think growth is good up to a certain point,” he said, adding that the group is trying to determine the point at which growth becomes unhealthy for the community.

Jantz said she thinks the county and city comprehensive plans are on track, but the report serves as a reminder of the importance of enforcing sound policies.

“To be honest, the current comprehensive plans for Albemarle and Charlottesville are quite good. … They’re focusing development in areas that can accommodate it and they’re preserving the rural areas,” Jantz said.

But long term, it will be more difficult to enforce land use policies and maintain healthy ecosystems if there are very high levels of population growth, she said.