UVa computer simulation looks toward bay’s future

A new computer game designed at the University of Virginia aims to forecast the future of the ailing Chesapeake Bay watershed.

The game — which was unveiled Wednesday to coincide with Earth Day — allows multiple players to take on various roles, such as developers, crab fishermen, policymakers, farmers and concerned residents.

Each player is asked to make several decisions, which can have long- and short-term effects on the environmental health of the bay’s watershed, which spans 64,000 square miles in six states.

In Wednesday’s demonstration, first-year UVa student Jane Carrick played the role of a government official who is responsible for regulating the bay’s crab industry.

“My name’s Jane and I’m a policymaker,” she said, as onlookers watched her play on a laptop. A dozen other students were playing different roles elsewhere in the Harrison Institute’s auditorium.

Carrick took a look at several economic and environmental reports and then decided to set a catch limit of 20,000 crabs per fisherman each season.

The game advanced in time and a chart popped up to show the bay’s new crab population.

“Let’s take a look,” said Gerard Learmonth, an engineering professor and the game’s lead designer. “The crab population is doing quite well! I thank everyone for that.”

The students playing as farmers, meanwhile, mostly decided to grow crops using organic, sustainable methods. This decision led to a short-term decline in revenue and profits. Yet it likely meant good news for the bay’s long-term water quality.

The game was conceived, built and tested within six months. Earlier this month, 144 UVa students tested it to work out the kinks.

Professors from 10 departments within seven schools at UVa contributed expertise. Faculty members with the School of Law helped add environmental policy decisions. Professors with the School of Architecture chipped in information about the effect of land-use decisions. Scientists synthesized 20 years of Environmental Protection Agency water quality data to include information on pollutants and the overall ecological health of the bay.

All of the various pieces of data are incorporated into the game, which relies on some 43,000 calculations.

When it’s fired up, the game collects all of the decisions made by its players and allows them to view the environmental impact of their choices.

“Sometimes the results will be surprising, sometimes the results will be what we thought would happen,” Learmonth said.

The game is a “bottom-up” simulation of a complex system, he said, providing players with outcomes that are exploratory but not necessarily predictive. Still, he said, the game could be used in the future to help decision makers understand the import of their actions and possibly to improve the health of the bay.

In the fall, UVa’s “bay game” will be made available throughout UVa as a teaching tool.

Dave Smith, an environmental sciences professor who was involved in game development and testing, said the sim is an example of the creative thinking that will be needed to improve the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

“Great universities address big challenges and this is certainly one of the biggest challenges,” he said.

A week ago, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation gave the bay’s health a grade of “D” in its annual state-of-the-bay report, marking the 10th consecutive year the waterway received that lackluster grade.