Deeds eyes rematch with familiar opponent

This year’s gubernatorial contest between familiar foes Democrat R. Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell may seem like déjà vu — but analysts are expecting something drastically different.

The two rivals faced off in the 2005 attorney general’s race, which ended with McDonnell winning by a margin of only 360 votes out of 1.94 million cast. It remains the closest statewide race in Virginia history.

While this year’s encore face-off is expected to be similarly hard fought, it will be different in terms of money, size and issues, political analysts said Wednesday.

“It should be a close, competitive race, which it wouldn’t have been if [Terry] McAuliffe or [Brian] Moran was the nominee,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Deeds crushed McAuliffe and Moran by a wide margin in Tuesday’s three-way Democratic gubernatorial primary. According to unofficial returns, Deeds snagged 49.77 percent of the vote, while McAuliffe took 26.45 percent and Moran received 23.77 percent.

Sabato said voters backed Deeds primarily because they believed he had the best shot of beating McDonnell in the Nov. 3 general election. Deeds’ moderate political ideology, Sabato said, is the most closely aligned with the views of most Virginians, making him the logical choice to take on McDonnell.

“People aren’t stupid,” Sabato said. “The answer was fairly obvious. Deeds was the only one who could win.”

In the 2005 race for attorney general, McDonnell outspent Deeds roughly two-to-one, $5.9 million compared with Deeds’ $3.1 million. This time around, neither Deeds, 51, nor McDonnell, 54, will struggle to raise vast sums. Virginia’s gubernatorial election is one of only two such races in the country and is viewed by both parties as a national bellwether.

“It’s not the bottom of the ticket this time,” said Bob Gibson, executive director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “It’s the top of the ticket — and the whole country’s watching.”

Competitive funding

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, who also serves as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, will have a strong interest in making sure that Deeds has sufficient funds to stay competitive with McDonnell.

“Deeds is going to be very well funded this time around,” Sabato said.

Gibson added that the issues in this year’s gubernatorial primary will be much broader than in the attorney general’s race in 2005, which focused mainly on criminal-justice issues. This time, he said, the top issues will be the economy, jobs, the environment, energy and more.

Deeds’ blowout margin of victory in Tuesday’s primary suggests that his supporters are motivated and that Deeds’ campaign has momentum, said Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw, D-Springfield, at Deeds’ victory rally at the Omni Charlottesville Hotel.

“If I was Bob McDonnell tonight, I’d be scared out of my mind,” he said.

In an interview, Deeds said he is confident about his chances of beating McDonnell in a rematch.

Stakes ‘couldn’t be higher’

“I feel strong. I’ve got a positive message that’s resonating in every corner of Virginia,” he said. “Last time, I was running for attorney general. People like you don’t really pay attention to that kind of race. This time, I’ll be at the top of the ticket. The contrast between Bob and me is stark. The stakes are high. They couldn’t be higher.”

Deeds also said that he’ll have a couple heavy hitters in his corner, including Kaine, U.S. Sens. Jim Webb and Mark R. Warner, and President Barack Obama. “All of those people are going to be involved in our campaign,” he said.

During Deeds’ victory speech, he highlighted several issues that are likely to emerge as themes in the general election.

McDonnell, he pointed out, has opposed stem-cell research, as well as abortion, even in cases of rape or incest. McDonnell also opposed expanding Virginia’s unemployment-benefits system, citing a worry that it would lead to higher taxes on businesses.

GOP targets taxes

Republicans, meanwhile, are beginning to target Deeds on issues such as his past support for tax increases.

A news release from the Republican Governors Association points out that Deeds voted to increase the gas tax, as well as the state’s cigarette tax.

Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Pat Mullins, a Louisa County resident, said Wednesday that Deeds has “consistently run on higher taxes, higher government spending and higher government involvement in business.”

“If he’s going to run on the old, tired policies of the Democrats — higher taxes, no on school choice, no on off-shore drilling, and give out doles instead of jobs — then this is going to be a fun campaign for Republicans,” Mullins said.

Sabato said Deeds’ record on taxes is fair game. But McDonnell, he added, has weaknesses of his own, such as his relationship with televangelist Pat Robertson.