Obama edging rival McCain in statewide poll

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has taken a slight lead among Virginia voters, pulling ahead of Republican John McCain in the past two weeks, a new statewide poll has found.

Across Virginia, 47 percent of likely voters support Obama, compared with 45 percent for McCain, according to a Mason-Dixon poll of 625 people conducted Monday and Tuesday for The Daily Progress and other Virginia newspapers.

In early October, the same poll found that McCain had a 48 percent to 45 percent advantage.

“Place a small bet on Obama,” said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia professor of politics. “But no more than a small bet.”

Virginia has not backed a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Obama’s narrow lead falls within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error, though it suggests the Democrat has gained support in Virginia since September, while McCain’s support has slipped.

Sabato said that he believes Virginia is now leaning toward Obama, but the race remains close. He predicts that Obama will win, but with a margin of only two or three points.

Virginia is one of six traditionally GOP-leaning states that are tightly contested this year, along with Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

While the race remains close in Virginia, Sabato said, Obama has a very good shot of winning the presidency on Nov. 4.

Could McCain defy the polls and bounce back? “Anything’s possible,” Sabato said. “But it’s increasingly unlikely.”

According to the Mason-Dixon poll, Obama has strengthened his lead in Northern Virginia, with a 61 percent to 31 percent advantage. McCain, meanwhile, is holding onto his lead in the state’s rural areas and in the Richmond metropolitan area.

Hampton Roads might decide the outcome of the race, the poll found. Obama has a 48 percent to 43 percent lead in the region.

The Shenandoah/Pied-mont region — which includes Charlottesville — widely favors McCain. McCain is backed by 57 percent of likely voters in the region, while 34 percent prefer Obama and 9 percent are undecided.

Christian J. Schoenewald, chairman of the Albemarle County GOP, said that President Bush was behind in some Virginia polls late in the 2000 election, but things turned around by Election Day.

“I still think Virginia will go for McCain,” he said. “But it’ll be close.”

Schoenewald said he is skeptical of polls showing Obama with a wide lead over McCain. The only poll that matters, he said, is the one on Nov. 4.

“Polls are polls,” he said. “I don’t believe any poll but the one on Election Day.”

Across the state, the No. 1 issue is the economy. The poll found that Virginia voters trust Obama more to handle the nation’s economic woes. The voters trust McCain more on national security and the Iraq war.

When asked which party deserves more blame for leading the country into its economic mess, 43 percent said President Bush and the GOP, while 34 percent said the Democrats. Both parties were blamed by 17 percent of respondents, while 6 percent were uncertain.

Jennifer McKeever, co-chair of the Charlottesville Democratic Party, said Obama’s economic proposals are registering with more Virginians. Obama has been steadier during the tumultuous economic crisis, she said, and is being advised by “brilliant economic minds” such as billionaire investor Warren Buffett and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.

At the center of Obama’s economic platform is a proposal to cut taxes for everyone earning less than $250,000 a year — an idea, McKeever said, that resonates with many.

“The reason that we’re in this economic mess in the first place is because of the Republican policies of the past eight years,” she said. “Obama is promising to cut taxes and focus on helping the middle class.”

The Mason-Dixon poll is only the latest to show Obama with a lead in the state.

A poll released Monday by Rasmussen Reports found that Obama holds a 10-point lead over McCain in Virginia. Real Clear Politics, which compiles an average of four polls, shows Obama at 51.5 percent and McCain at 44.5 percent.

Virginia’s tight race, Sabato said, could be affected more by national events than other states. While the economy has been the top issue lately, things could change quickly.

Both McKeever and Schoenewald agreed that the race in Virginia will likely come down to voter turnout. Neither side, they said, is taking anything for granted.