Poll shows McDonnell widens lead

Republican Bob McDon-nell appears poised to win the governorship and lead a GOP sweep Tuesday, ending nearly a decade of reverses for his party, according a poll commissioned for The Daily Progress and other newspapers.

McDonnell is favored by 53 percent, while Democrat R. Creigh Deeds is preferred by 41 percent — a widened lead from an early October survey for the newspaper. Six percent are undecided in the latest poll.
In the Shenandoah/
Piedmont region, which includes the Charlottesville area, McDonnell’s lead is even wider, at 67 percent to Deeds’ 29 percent, based on a regional sampling of 95 voters.

McDonnell’s comfortable lead, along with those of his running mates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, points to a dramatic comeback for Republicans that could include a heftier majority in the House of Delegates.
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is ahead of Jody Wagner by 13 percentage points. For attorney general, Republican Ken Cuccinelli is up 14 percentage points over Steve Shannon.
McDonnell could become the first Republican elected governor since Jim Gilmore in 1997. Since 2001, Demo-crats have twice won the governorship, taken back two U.S. Senate seats, seized a majority in the U.S. House delegation and control of the Virginia Senate.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. conducted The Daily Progress poll this past Wednesday and Thursday. The results, based on interviews with 625 registered voters likely to cast ballots Tuesday, could vary 4 percentage points in either direction.
The Daily Progress poll shows McDonnell, having suffered little or no damage from Deeds’ focus on his controversial law-school thesis, is ahead in all regions of the state and competitive in heavily Demo-cratic Northern Virginia.
Further, McDonnell is statistically tied with Deeds among women, a traditional bulwark for Democrats. Deeds has tried to invigorate women voters by spotlighting portions of the thesis in which McDonnell, among other things, criticized working women as a threat to families. He now disavows such views.

Deeds’ attacks on McDonnell apparently have backfired, with the Democrat’s unfavorable rating, at 42 percent, exceeding his favorable score. McDonnell has a 51 percent favorable rating.
The Daily Progress poll suggests that Deeds might not have been helped by President Barack Obama’s visit to Norfolk a week before the election.
The appearance, which roughly coincided with the poll, was intended to drive up support for Deeds among Obama’s key constituents, including blacks. However, the poll shows that black support for Deeds, at 82 percent, is virtually unchanged from early October. Deeds also is slipping in Hampton Roads, the site of the Obama visit.

Obama is the first Democrat to win Virginia for the presidency in 44 years — a distinction that has transformed the governor’s race into a referendum on the young administration in Washington.
In The Daily Progress poll, Virginians are now evenly split in their perceptions of Obama, who won Virginia with 53 percent of the vote. Forty-three percent of respondents say they have a favorable view of Obama, while 43 percent rate him unfavorably. His negative rating in Virginia is at an all-time high.