Race for 5th remains up in the air

The Charlottesville region might not know which candidate won Tuesday’s hard-fought 5th District congressional race until sometime in December.

Wednesday evening, the race between six-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr., R-Rocky Mount, and challenger Democrat Tom Perriello remained too close to call.

As of 6 p.m., Perriello had a lead of only 31 votes in the race. Perriello had 49.97 percent of the vote, compared with Goode’s 49.96 percent, according to unofficial election returns posted by the State Board of Elections.

The vote tallies fluctuated wildly Wednes-day, with Goode up by several hundred votes early in the day until Perriello took his slim lead at 3 p.m.

Both Perriello and Goode expressed confidence on Wednesday that they would be named the winner once all the votes are counted. Neither has yet declared victory in the race.

“It’s a historic day for our commonwealth and our country,” Perriello said in a news conference Wednesday, the morning after Democrat Barack Obama won the presidency. “We’re just going to have to see how this plays out.”

Around noon, Goode told reporters in a conference call that he was “pretty calm” and happy that, at that point, he was up by 300 votes.

“This is a tight election,” he said. “We are pleased to be ahead. And we are optimistic that when every valid vote is counted, we will prevail.”

Across the 5th District — which includes the city of Charlottesville and the counties of Albemarle, Buckingham, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson — election officials went through and verified the more than 371,000 votes cast in the race.

The officials also spent time Wednesday counting provisional ballots, which are provided if a voter is missing from the voting rolls or if they never received or lost their absentee ballot.

With such a tiny — and uncertain — margin in the contest, it is almost certain that a recount will occur. Under Virginia law, a candidate may request a taxpayer-funded recount if the margin is at or below 0.5 percent, as it undoubtedly will be in this case. Yet such a recount would not occur until after the State Board of Elections certifies the official vote tally on Nov. 24.

Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County, experienced a similar situation in 2005 when he faced Bob McDonnell in the statewide attorney general race. Once the polls closed, Deeds trailed McDonnell by only a few hundred votes. It was not until Dec. 20 that a recount was held, upholding Deeds’ loss by a margin of 323 votes.

“I’m familiar with the process. You have to respect the process,” Deeds said late Tuesday night at the Democrats’ victory party at Gravity Lounge. “We’ve got to count every vote and hope for a decisive answer. If it takes six weeks, it takes six weeks.”

Whether or not Perriello manages to unseat Goode, a message has been delivered to the congressman, who has found himself criticized for his negative comments about a Muslim member of Congress and for accepting campaign contributions from a defense contractor who was implicated in a bribery scandal surrounding another GOP congressman, said Jennifer McKeever, co-chair of the Charlottesville Democrats.

“I just hope that Virgil heard the message loud and clear,” she said. “He’s got to stop being an embarrassment to the district.”

Goode said he is not surprised that the election was so close.

“Anytime you have someone from New York who spends millions of dollars against you, I think we did pretty well,” Goode said.

Perriello, who lives and grew up in Albemarle County, raised roughly $1.5 million as of Oct. 15, compared with Goode’s fundraising total of $1.48 million. Perriello spent $1.4 million, while Goode spent $1.09 million in the campaign, according to campaign finance records.

If Perriello is elected, he may have a difficult time hanging on. The 5th District is solidly GOP leaning and it would most likely be a top target for Republicans to take back in 2010.

“If Perriello does squeak in, it’s going to be a giant problem for him in 2010,” said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia politics professor. “He would be really vulnerable.”

Moreover, Sabato added, 2008 was a banner year for Democrats, with the coattails of Obama and popular U.S. Senate contender Mark R. Warner benefiting downticket candidates such as Perriello. A similar Democratic “tidal wave” would be highly unlikely to occur again during the mid-term elections two years from now.

Win or lose, Perriello said he is proud of the race he ran, far surpassing the performance of anyone who ever ran against Goode during his years in Congress and the Virginia legislature.

“We left behind the politics of fear in favor of positive solutions,” he said.

Neither Goode nor Perriello said Wednesday that he planned to ask for a recount, saying that election officials first need to complete the first official tally of votes.