Warner maintains lead over Gilmore

Former Gov. Mark R. Warner continues to hold a colossal lead over former Gov. Jim Gilmore in the race to replace John W. Warner in the U.S. Senate.

Of 625 registered voters in Virginia, 61 percent favored Warner, compared with 32 percent for Gilmore, according to a new poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research on behalf of The Daily Progress and other Virginia newspapers.
Warner, a Democrat, leads in all areas of Virginia and among all demographic groups, with the exception of voters identifying themselves as Republicans.
In the past two months, Warner’s 30-point advantage over Gilmore, a Republican, has held fairly steady.
In recent memory, only John Warner, R-Alexandria, has enjoyed such a vast lead in a statewide race in Virginia, said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.

“The numbers would be like this if John Warner was running for re-election against just about anybody other than Mark Warner,” he said.
Of those surveyed, 1 percent said they intend to vote for one of the two third-party candidates: Independent Green Party nominee Glenda Gail Parker or Libertarian William Redpath. An estimated 6 percent of voters are undecided. The poll has a 4 percent margin of error.
The Shenandoah/Piedmont region, which includes the Charlottesville area, supports Warner by the slimmest margin in the state, 48 percent compared with Gilmore’s 44 percent.
While Charlottesville is heavily Democratic, the poll packs the city in with traditionally GOP-leaning areas such as the Shenandoah Valley.
“It’s a little island of blue in a sea of red,” Coker said.
Ana Gamonal, Gilmore’s communications director, said she believes such polls are flawed because many Virginians only have cell phones, while pollsters call registered voters’ landline phones.

“The veracity of these polls is questionable,” she said.
Gilmore, she added, has been campaigning hard across Virginia and will be a featured speaker at three rallies for GOP presidential nominee John McCain and running mate Sarah Palin today.
“The warmth and support that he is getting around the state does not feel like he’s down 30 points,” Gamonal said.
Warner has maintained his sizable lead because he has managed to raise substantially more campaign cash than Gilmore and because his time in the governor’s mansion was considered much more successful than Gilmore’s term, said Stephen J. Farnsworth, a George Mason University expert on Virginia politics.

“Mark Warner was widely perceived as having a very successful governorship, which was a sharp contrast to the rank partisanship that marked the end of Gilmore’s governorship,” he said.
With such a strong lead in the U.S. Senate race, could Warner’s coattails benefit such downticket Dem-ocratic candidates as Tom Perriello, who is challenging six-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr.?
“It would take extraordinarily long coattails — more like a wedding train — to affect the Virgil Goode race,” Farnsworth said. “Fighting Virgil Goode in the 5th Congressional District is like trying to fight an alligator in a swamp.”
Election Day is Tuesday. Polling places are open between 6 a.m. and 7 p.m. The final day to vote absentee is today.