Redistricting could bode well for GOP in 5th

The 5th Congressional District, which stretches from the Charlottesville region down to the North Carolina border, will almost certainly grow more solidly Republican in the upcoming redistricting process, political insiders on both sides of the aisle say.

The already conservative-leaning district —which was lost by U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Ivy, in the Nov. 2 midterm election — will be represented by Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt of Chatham come January.

As lawmakers redraw the state’s political boundaries in the coming months, political observers say, the district will probably be tweaked to add more reliably Republican counties.

According to U.S. Census estimates from last year, the 5th District will need to add nearly 39,000 people to reach the new congressional district population target of roughly 717,370 people.

Fred Hudson, chairman of the 5th District Democratic Committee, said he suspects the 5th’s boundaries might be redrawn to include Amherst County, which borders Nelson County to the south, as well as the counties of Nottoway and Amelia, which are located south of Goochland and Powhatan counties.

“That would continue to solidify the 5th as a Republican district,” Hudson said.

At the same time, he said, the 5th District will likely lose a few localities — such as Martinsville and the counties of Franklin and Henry — to the neighboring 9th District, which was just won by Republican Morgan Griffith of Salem.

The 9th District needs to pick up an estimated 67,000 people, but it can only grow in the 5th District to its east or into the 6th District to the north.

Making the district more Republican, Hudson said, would make it more difficult for Democrats to win as Perriello did two years ago. It will also mark a “further isolation” of the large number of Democratic voters in the Charlottesville area.

“That’s the evil trick of redistricting,” Hudson said. “They can isolate pockets like Charlottesville and minimize their say.”

Chris Schoenewald, former chairman of the Albemarle County GOP, concurred that the 5th District will turn an even deeper shade of red.

“With Robert Hurt winning, it will become more Republican,” he said.

The 5th District, Schoenewald said, might expand into the counties of Madison, Orange and Louisa, all three of which are currently represented by U.S. Rep. Eric I. Cantor, R-Henrico, in the 7th District.

Another possibility, he added, is that the 5th District picks up Lynchburg from the 6th District held by U.S. Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Roanoke County.

Virginia’s General Assembly is expected to undertake its redistricting process in a special session following the normal legislative session that convenes Jan. 12.

Along with the new congressional boundaries, lawmakers will also redraw the 40 districts of Virginia’s Senate and the 100 districts of the House of Delegates.

Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County, said it is too soon to predict what sorts of changes might be coming to his district, which meanders from the West Virginia border along to Charlottesville, Nelson County and parts of Albemarle and Buckingham counties.

The final Census numbers, he pointed out, will not be available until February, making predictions premature.

“We just need to step back and take a deep breath until we know what the numbers are and what the districts are going to look like,” he said.

Deeds has been a longtime advocate for bipartisan redistricting, rather than the current process in which the lines are essentially drawn by the political party in power — in this case, the Republicans in the House, the Democrats in the Senate and Gov. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, in the governor’s mansion.

Deeds said he hopes this cycle’s redistricting process will produce political boundaries that will give real choice to voters, maximize the number of competitive districts and pack together communities of common interests.

“The process has been skewed for a long time,” Deeds said. “I don’t know that it’ll be unskewed until we change the process.”

Based on 2009 population estimates, Deeds’ district needs to grow by roughly 9,500 people to reach the Senate districts’ population target of 197,277 residents.

Rumors are floating around, Schoenewald said, that Deeds’ district might lose Charlottesville. Under this scenario, he said, the city would be moved into the 24th District held by Sen. Emmett W. Hanger, R-Mount Solon.

Hanger currently represents Greene County and western Albemarle County, among other localities including Staunton, Waynesboro and Augusta County.

On the House side, the district of Del. David J. Toscano, D-Charlottesville, needs to grow by about 4,600 residents to reach the target House district population of 78,911 people.

Toscano’s district seems to have little room to grow other than farther into surrounding Albemarle County.

Toscano said partisan redistricting simply allows lawmakers to “draw the district lines in a way they can chose constituents who are more likely to vote for them.”

“This has the effect of entrenching incumbents and often creates safe districts for the political parties,” he said. “For these reasons, I have always supported a nonpartisan redistricting commission and have offered bills on this in the past. They have always been defeated in the House.”

Del. Rob Bell, R-Albemarle, may see his district shrink a bit, as it is nearly 4,900 people over the target district size, based on the most recent Census data.

“My district has grown more than the state average so we’ll have to adjust for population, if nothing else,” Bell said. “It’s hard to predict what’s going to happen.”

Another rumor regarding House districts, Schoenewald said, is that the southern Albemarle precincts may be taken out of the 59th District held by Del. Watkins M. Abbitt Jr., I-Appomattox.

Of course, Schoenewald added, all the rumors may prove untrue, noting that “trying to guess the mind of the General Assembly is not an easy task.”

The House and Senate are both holding public hearings around the state to gather input on the redistricting process.

None has been scheduled for the Charlottesville area, but both chambers will hold public hearings on the process Dec. 17 in Richmond. The House hearing will be held at 10 a.m. in the ninth floor Appropriations room of the General Assembly Building. The Senate will hold its hearing at 11 a.m. in Senate Room B of the General Assembly building.