Has drought doomed hopes for beautiful fall foliage?

The region’s coming out of a long, baking summer, but last week’s rains could be enough to save the region’s fall color show, according to experts.

Among the most important influences on a leaf’s brilliance is its ability to produce color-inducing compounds in the weeks leading up to its demise, said Jerry Stenger, director of the University of Virginia’s climatology office. And with at least three quarters of area leaves still green even in the higher elevations, local trees could have enough time to turn recent weeks of rain into a pretty show for season-charmed locals and tourists alike.

The National Park Service is still predicting only a 25 percent color change, and a U.S. Forest Service spokesman said color change in the national forests is still in the same range.

“It looks like the rainfall we got … will probably help improve the color display this year,” Stenger said.

As long as the summer doesn’t desiccate leaves to the point that they actually die and fall of the trees, it’s not necessarily crippling to the forests’ fall display, Stenger said. Full sunlight helps too, he added.

The display is caused by the reduction of the levels of chlorophyll, a key light-processing compound, in the leaves. With its green mask removed, the leaves display the reds, yellows and oranges that they’ve hidden all summer. The compounds responsible are carotenoids and anthocyanins, Stenger said. Maples, some oaks and dogwoods are among the species that provide brilliant reds to brighten up the oranges and yellows, he said.

“In the park this week, the big show is coming from sassafras trees,” reads the latest weekly update from Shenandoah National Park. Many of the leaves turn a lovely paprika color, according to park officials.

There’s always a chance that strong winds could somewhat shorten the season, but right now things are shaping up for a “pretty good display,” according to Stenger.

But Stenger admitted he might be biased.

“We like to think that even a sub-optimum color display in Virginia is still pretty darn good,” he said.

Higher elevations peak first, and the foliage’s peak weekend should be right in its typical place, at Columbus Day weekend at the end of this week, according to Shenandoah National Park. The peak for lower elevations will probably be between the Oct. 15 and Oct. 20, Stenger said.

AAA Mid-Atlantic issued a statement praising Virginia’s leaf-viewing opportunities.

“While many people think of the northeastern states as the best places to view the fall foliage, nature’s show is just as beautiful right here in the commonwealth,” said Martha M. Meade, AAA Mid-Atlantic spokeswoman, in the statement. “For those with less time and less money, trips to Virginia destinations such as Shenandoah National Park or along the Blue Ridge Parkway are fast, affordable and can be just as impressive.”

The group recommended three places to see leaves: the Charlottesville area, Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway, and Washington.

Stenger also warned that motorcycle accidents tend to peak during the color season, and said that drivers hitting roads such as Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway should be careful.