Both pro- and anti-dam sides seize on new water data

Opponents and supporters of the plan to build a new earthen dam at Ragged Mountain Reservoir have seized on new data released this week, with both sides claiming to have been validated by updated forecasts for the area’s future water needs.

The 50-year water supply plan is based on predictions that the system will need to be able to produce 18.7 million gallons per day (mgd) by 2055, but a new forecast puts that number at 16.26 mgd by 2055, and 17.01 mgd by 2060.

Those predictions cover the RWSA’s urban service area, which includes the city of Charlottesville, the University of Virginia and the urban portions of Albemarle County. The new forecasts — which the RWSA released Wednesday — were produced by AECOM Technology Corporation, an engineering and architecture firm based in Los Angeles.

The city and county have agreed to a plan for a phased earthen dam that would initially raise the reservoir pool by 30 feet. The new dam is a key element of the water supply plan, which is estimated to cost around $140 million.

Dam opponents say the drop in forecasted demand is grounds for changing course on the water supply plan, while RWSA officials say a fluctuation in forecasts is no reason to start over.

On Thursday, the anti-dam group Citizens for a Sustainable Water Plan held a news conference in front of Charlottesville’s City Hall, urging local leaders to reconsider the water supply issue in light of the new information.

“The demand projections were the foundation for the selection of the dam-and-pipeline alternative,” said Dede Smith, a CSWP member and a Democratic candidate for City Council. “Now that we know that those projections are significantly overstated, it is imperative that we go back and look at the alternatives that were already on the table. They of course include the dredging of the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir as well as the use of our other existing resources.”

Smith pointed to estimates from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality showing that dredging the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir to 80 percent of its original capacity would yield 15.5 mgd. According to the forecast, Smith said, that number would cover the area’s water needs until 2050.

“We feel that the study supports our contention that dredging of the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir will get us at least 40 years of adequate water storage for drought protection,” Smith said.

CSWP member Rebecca Quinn said the dam-and-pipeline scenario should no longer be supported given the new data, and that the group wants to see progress on the dam halted and reconsideration by elected officials.

“Some people might say, ‘oh my goodness should we go through that process again?’” Quinn said. “I would counter and say, should we spend $140 million that we don’t need to spend?”

RWSA Executive Director Thomas L. Frederick Jr. said the differing forecasts are to be expected, because nobody has a “crystal ball.”

“The key issue is, does the fact that a forecast now is different from a forecast a few years ago, does it justify starting a very long and very expensive process all over again, or is the new forecast still in sync?” Frederick said. “I think it’s still in sync.”

Mayor Dave Norris, the leading dam critic on the City Council, posted a response to new numbers on Facebook, saying that they validate the plan he floated in 2009 and 2010 that called for dredging combined with a smaller increase to the existing dam.

Norris said his plan was criticized at the time because it only provided 16.8 mgd by 2055, but the new numbers show his plan would have provided more than enough water.

“I’m not wedded to the ‘Norris Plan’ but whatever the future holds, the good news is that it’s not too late to change course and do the right thing by our ratepayers and our environment,” Norris wrote.

The DEQ has determined that the dam project qualifies as a “major modification,” which will set in motion an additional public comment period. DEQ officials said this week that the determination means that any decision on the RWSA’s permit request will likely be put off until the first quarter of next year. RWSA officials had hoped to begin construction this fall.

AECOM and RWSA will hold a series of public meetings next week on the new water demand forecasts.