Study: Central Va. school rates to rise

Most Central Virginia school districts will see increases in enrollment in the next five years, but the rising costs of education could turn that positive growth into a negative financial impact, according to a statewide study of school enrollments.

Conducted by the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, the study shows that area districts will see enrollment grow from a low of 0.9 percent in Charlottesville to a high of 13.7 percent in Fluvanna County by the 2014-2015 school year.
Buckingham County is the only Central Virginia district expected to lose enrollment, with an 8.2 percent decrease by 2014-2015, the study shows.
The area bucks the statewide trend for most districts, which is expected to show a downward trend in enrollment during the next five years.
“Statewide school enrollment growth over the next five years is attributable largely to growth in a relatively small number of metropolitan and suburban school divisions. Most school divisions are not growing,” the report, written by researcher Michael Spar, states. “Most of the school divisions expected to grow are located in an arc running from Hampton Roads in the south, through the Richmond metropolitan area, west to Albemarle, and then northeast to Northern Virginia.”

Albemarle County is expected to see the number of schoolchildren rise by 7.2 percent in five years. Louisa County’s projected 13.3 percent increase in the same time period puts it second behind Fluvanna for Central Virginia while Greene County’s projected 10.8 percent increase ranks third for the region.
Orange County’s enrollment is expected to increase 9.8 percent by 2014-2015, Madison County’s by 4.6 percent and Nelson County by 1.2 percent, the study shows.

In an odd twist, the study indicates that those districts with smaller increases and even decreases could make out slightly better financially than those with large enrollment increases.
“In this time of declining state fiscal resources, the impact of school enrollment changes will depend on factors unique to each school division,” the study states. “Divisions with declining enrollment will receive fewer state funds to support education, yet local tax dollars will stretch further. Divisions with growing student enrollment may receive increases in state support, but possibly not enough to offset the additional costs of educating more children.”

The study indicates that whether the increases drain resources from the districts could depend on support from local jurisdictions.
“The willingness of localities to raise property tax rates to mitigate the impact of budget cuts and other fiscal resources available to each jurisdiction (including the extent to which federal assistance may become available) will determine how school enrollment changes impact each locality,” the study states.